Monday, 14 December 2020

December 2020 FCAG meeting

Our December meeting was once again a virtual affair, using the Association's Zoom account with the Chairman's kind permission. Since it was a truly dreich winter day, I think most of us were glad of the excuse to stay in.

Alisdair, Martin, Jim, James, Tony, Richard, Mick, Simon, Andy, Graham, Chris G. and Nigel appeared on screen for a down-to-earth Show and Tell session. Martin went first and showed a nicely-weathered rake of wagons, which had benefitted from his painting skills from wargaming figures. Unfortunately, I did not get screenshots of his work (sorry Martin) but maybe he'll give us an entire session on weathering another time. 

Martin had also recently tackled an an Easitrack turnout kit, which had gone well until he started to file the planing of the switches. This caused problems. We talked about the various methods of tackling this job, and it turned out to be an issue for many of those who'd tried the kit - more of this later. As usual, each expert had a slightly different way of tackling the job, so the discussion took some time. 

Martin raised another good question: which is the best 2mm steam outline kit to cut your teeth on? Mick pointed out that the usual advice, namely to find an 0-6-0 tender prototype, is given because this gives twelve contact points for reliable pick-up and thus maximises the chance of something running smoothly first time.

Richard had also tried an Easitrack point kit, and this time I managed to take a screenshot.

Construction was straightforward and took him a week of evenings, but like Martin, Richard found things went wrong when it came to filing and fitting the switch rails. Mick recommended sliding the stock rails through the chairs for three sleepers past the tiebar, allowing the switch rails to be slipped into place. The stock and switch rails can then be unobtrusively bonded with a small strip of brass. Another of Mick's tips was to replace the solder tag on the crossing with a longer piece of brass strip, long enough to pass through the baseboard. This allows the crossing to be removed easily if it's necessary to adjust or replace the closure rails.

Richard was brave enough to show us a cruel close-up of how, in frustration, he had attempted to get the switch tips to sit in neatly against the stock rails, after being told in a previous meeting that joggles were for Great Western modellers only and that porridge-eating, caber-tossing, loch-swimming, hair-shirted inhabitants of Ardnamurchan were not permitted such simple solutions. The alternative he came up with was to file a recess in the stock rails themselves. This caused some concerned murmuring from the experts who pointed out that although this will work well in the facing direction, it is likely to cause problems when passing through in the trailing direction as wheelsets are likely to bounce off the recess when it ends suddenly and derail.

On seeing the photo, the diagnosis was that the planing length of the switch tips is too short. According to the 2mmSA "Track" book, "A" switches should have 11mm planing and "B" switches, 15mm. Sometimes cruel photos have their uses, for diagnosis would have been difficult without it.

It turned out that not only Richard, but several others were slightly confused by the book, which deals with filing of crossing vees and switches in the same section, bouncing around somewhat between the two. The "file-bend-file" technique of filing a taper on one side of the rail until just reaching the web, then bending the rail so that the filed taper is in a straight line with that side of the rail, and finally filing the taper on the other side of the rail, is intended to be used for switch blades as well as crossing rails. Several people mentioned that when filing the second side, it's only necessary to file away the upper head of bullhead rail, leaving the foot substantially complete so that the switch has a little more strength. The wheel flange only runs along the upper head after all. 

The experts also mentioned that, although joggles are not their cup of tea, most of them put a slight "set" in the stock rail - a single kink really, rather than the double-kink of the joggle - but only enough to take the rail a few degrees away from straight. This allows the switch rail to sit in more neatly. Easier to do with soldered track than in the Easitrack kit, however. (And ... tell it not in Gath, whisper it not in the streets of Ascalon ... even the Caley used joggles when they had to - such as in a true three-way point. See here).

Further anent track, Andy showed us his tiebar design, which he wrote up in the magazine a few years ago.


James shows us a small test track and power supply unit he completed recently, as well as a DCC track voltage tester he's currently working on. I missed photos of these too - sorry James! - but again, it would be interesting to have more details in a future meeting.

Simon has been batch-building LNER fish wagon chassis. His working practice is based round plastic ice-cream tubs ... it is necessary to spend several evenings eating ice-cream before starting. After that, they are used to keep the different stages of production neatly segregated, so a batch of chassis can be worked on a few operations at a time, slowly (or quickly, in Simon's case) bringing the whole lot to completion.


Other work has included a 2mmSA LNER Toad kit and a mystery-origin kit for a vaguely Southern brakevan picked up out of curiosity at Perth show some years back. No doubt someone knowledgeable (Chris Gough perhaps, our local Southern aficionado!) can tell us what the exact prototype was. Are these things on the end platforms sandboxes?

Finally, Simon showed us the timbers for the tandem he is working on for the group layout. He's a set man, not a joggle man, before you ask.

Tony has also been batch-building, and showed us a box full off Black 5 tender inner frames and cabs. Yes, there are nine cabs in the box, all mostly complete.

Jim showed us the latest progress on Kirkallanmuir's station building, which has gestated from its unfinished state shown here:

to a detailed model with window, door and lettering detail added from his own etches. His RMWeb write-up, as usual, gives full details.

The building shell is from 0.040" styrene with 0.020" window sills and 0.010" overlays for quoin details etc. The method of cutting the 40-thou' material is to press heavily an a steel rule and make many light-pressure cuts with a sharp scalpel blade: typically 5 or 6 for 0.020" and more for the thicker material (or score and snap). Jim eschews safety rulers but others spoke highly of them. Alisdair mentioned that cheap Chinese-import rules are in fact better for the job because the poorly-finished edge has the effect of gripping the styrene more firmly that a higher-quailty but smoother-edged rule.

Chris took us though his the latest stages of his LMS 4F build (2mmSA chassis with a Mike Raithby body etch).



Issues he had to solve included the drawbar design, the motor mount, and the gearbox: the chassis etch has a fold-up gearbox but the tabs and slots had not etched well and did not locate properly. Ultimately, and with advice from some more experienced members at a previous physical meeting, it was easier to remove the etched gearbox and fabricate one from brass. The splasher tops in the body kit were another source of issues: Chris learned the hard way that the tops are designed to go above the sides rather than between them - only then is there enough clearance for the wheel flanges.

Nigel showed us progress with finescaling the N Gauge Society Hunslet industrial diesel. On taking to bits an early prototype example, he discovered there is very minimal clearance between a spur gear in the model's drive train and a standard (1.5mm) 2mmSA driving axle centred by its drop-in replacement bearing:

His proposed solution is a special axle muff which shaves 0.2mm off part of its length to clear the spur gear. If that does not prove practical after checking for tolerances on more recent production models, a plan B exists using a thinned axle.

Mick had an intriguing set of illustrations of how to make card wagon bodies from standard file dividers. The prototypes are from local industrial railways. First the sides are drawn on the card:

 The plank lines are scored before the sides are cut out.

The model is assembled square:
End stanchions and hopper sides are added:

Here a 2mmSA chassis has been used to complete the model.

The final shot is of a similar North Eastern pre-grouping hopper in card, a model he completed in 1984,

Alisdair brought us up to date with progress on his Highland Railway "Yankee Tank" 4-4-0T. The chassis has advanced to a state where it is square and flat, and everything runs smoothly. The frames are from 0.55mm brass, which he found much more pleasant to use than the thinner material often recommended. They are also blackened with a Carr's proprietary liquid, rather than painted, which will hopefully overcome problems with unsightly chips as the model is handled. 

The brake rigging (brass shoes, nickel-silver hangers, PCB cross-shafts, and a wire pull-rod) locateinto a thin tube which receives the pull-rod, visible below.

Stay-alive capacitors are shoehorned into a space below the footplate. A lump of lead keeps the bogie from floating off the track.
The boiler was rolled round turned bands, soldered, then cut away for the motor, as seen below.

The tank and cab sides were cut from sheet with a piercing saw.

Boiler fittings have been turned on a lathe with needle files.

That pretty much completed the showing and telling. The next virtual meeting is likely to be on 9 January 2021, with a tentative theme of "travelling toolkits".

Whether you are of the Set or Joggle persuasion, the Forth and Clyde Area Group wishes all 2mm modellers, in Scotland and beyond, a Merry Christmas and a guid New Year tae yin and 'a.

Sunday, 15 November 2020

November 2020 FCAG meeting

November's Zoom get-together had the theme of "Tools – Those I have Loved and Hated". This worked quite well, with each of the twelve attendees (Chris M, Chris G, Alisdair, Alastair, Mick, Nigel, Andy, Richard, James, Stephen, Simon and Graham) given ten minutes maximum to say their piece. Interestingly, several themes kept recurring, at least regarding the most useful implements. (There was a certain amount of off-scene chortling from assorted eavesdropping WaGs - they know who they are - as the T-word was bandied about thoughtlessly by our earnest group members. We must find our entertainment where we can in these days of social distancing!)

I wasn't nimble enough to screen-grab everything that was shown, so please forgive the limited choice of images. Does anyone else have problems with the Alt-Shift-T key binding for Zoom under Linux Mint 18.2, or is it just me?

Simon's favourite was a pair of simple but sturdy metalworking dividers - made by Starrett, and sourced secondhand by a helpful workmate - which he finds ideal for scribing planking and the like in styrene sheet.

His pet hate was scalpels, on account of the lacerations suffered from a young age from their use. He still has all his fingers however.

Mick showed us his Cowells 90 ME lathe, and described his latest project with it - a servo-operated "arrester" which stops wagons moving by sticking a rod up to engage them from underneath. This is something to do with a scheme to reproduce the Bowes rope-worked incline in 2mm. We probed for further details but mostly got mysterious smiles in response. No doubt all will be revealed in time ... His least helpful gadget is a clamp intended to ensure that pieces of styrene are assembled at a true 90° angle:

It fails to do this satisfactorily due to the foam rubber inserts. Others agreed and the consensus was that a small steel block with button magnets is a better way to do the job.

Nigel also favoured a Cowells lathe, and showed off large amounts of tooling to go with it. A hobby in itself ... other favourites include a Mitutoyo digital vernier gauge (whose button cells last for many months, unlike cheaper models from Aldi - an observation which met with much nodding from other participants), an Archimedean drill, and a small pin vice. Although such drills are easily and cheaply found from suppliers such as Squires, Nigel made the point that they very often do not run true, and the best way to find a good 'un is to inspect a selection at an exhibition and pick the best of the bunch. 

A final favourite was a pair of toolmaker's vices rescued from a skip apparently. (Why are there no such skips where I live? All they contain is builder's rubble and soggy plasterboard. I think Nigel spins yarns like these just to wind us up!)


His least useful item was a clumsy gas torch, bought in the expectation it would prove its worth for bigger jobs, but relegated to the back of the cupboard in favour of a smaller model. (The photo is of the clumsy one; he showed the other, better torch in last month's blog).

Chris M's top picks were a hand vice of the type seen below, available from Squires for thirteen quid; and a chisel blade in an X-Acto handle for separating etch parts neatly from a fret. The blade can be re-sharpened for this non-critical application.


His pet hate was his Dremel drill stand, which contrives to hold drills off-vertical .... not quite what its designer presumably intended. Apparently this is a common problem with these stands which cannot be easily solved. Caveat emptor. Others recommended the Proxxon drill stand as the best design of a generally poor bunch.

Stephen spoke highly of plain old tin-snips for cutting sheet metal. Most people find these curl up anything they touch into a useless spiral, but Stephen explained that, with care, they will do the job very well. He uses a score-and-snap technique with a hefty scrawker to bring the workpiece close to the desired dimensions, then finishes the last couple of millimetres to size with the tin-snips. The small waste strip will certainly curl up, but the workpiece itself will stay flat.

His most-disliked choice was a resistance soldering unit. Early in his 2mm days he acquired the well-regarded London Road Models unit, but found it did not suit him, and that synchonising the foot-switch action while positioning the parts did not "click". This led to a group discussion. A stout defence was mounted by the two ex-chairmen in the group, but the conclusion was that RSUs definitely require a particular technique which does not suit everyone.

Chris G. brought us back to the theme of digital vernier gauges which eat button cells ... another dislike was his Silhouette cutter, with which he has a love-hate relationship. The "hate" part stems from his difficulty in using it to consistently cut styrene thicknesses above 10 thou, although he readily admitted that others have been successful. He is much happier with his CNC cutter (which can also carry a laser cutting head and with the right technique, deals with plywood up to 5mm). This is the unit he told us about in the March 2020 FCAG meeting, when he showed us examples of the buildings he can produce with it.

Another favourite item is wire-strippers. The yellow/orange example below is of the self-adjusting type available on eBay or Amazon for around six quid. The other set are rather more expensive - over £30 from Squires, look for "CK automatic wire stripper" - but have the distinct advantage of being able to strip insulation from the middle of a run of wire, rather than only at the end. A huge time-saver when wiring up a large layout.

Richard's favourite was the trusty old Swann-Morton plastic craft knife handle which I suspect we all started with in our schooldays - at least, many of the audience agreed with him. He gave the thumbs-down to an airbrush which he purchased with a large paint reservoir, only to find that the cleanup was so onerous that he hated to use it. The solution was to turn it upside down, remove the reservoir, and use it like a cup airbrush. Neat.

Andy showed us an interesting compact mobile toolbench and store. Lockable caster wheels mean that it rolls easily but can be instantly made stable for work. A power strip is attached to one side on a wandering mains cable.Tools are kept in the drawers or on the sliding shelves.

At the back are stored a couple of clip-on work surfaces which are attached using shelf rails from a DIY store. The vice and minidrill clamp can be repositioned thanks to a choice of mounting holes. A magnifier lamp is mounted at the back. All told, a very nice and compact design which my photos don't really do justice to.

James' best friends are a simple six-inch steel rule and a sharp pencil; and ceramic-tipped tweezers. He is less enthusiastic about his mini-drill: the stiff lead and general clumsiness mean that is generally stays in the drawer.

Graham's top choice was a flux brush made from a cut-down paintbrush stuck in a lump of cork for stability and bench cleanliness.

Another favourite is an analogue vernier gauge, with a dial readout rather than a true vernier scale. No batteries to run down ...


His harsh words were reserved for a miniature hand drill based on a scaled-down carpenter's hand drill, but made in plastic. It is rigid enough, precisely made, and has no shake in its bearings ... but it only takes drills below about 0.7mm and is far too clumsy for these. An Archimedean drill is a far better solution.
 

Alasdair, being a 5-inch live-steam man, had some enviable larger machines to show us in his workshop. His favourites are a small milling machine and his Ender 3D filament printer. He moved his camera around so quickly, however, that I failed to get even a single shot of his workshop.

Alisdair had smaller implements in mind - his favourite is an engineer's clamp, used here to hold a coupling rod for finishing. With care the jaws can be adjusted to have a truly parallel action.

He gave the thumbs-down to the type of hand clamp which most of us will have toyed with buying at a show. They look like they will be useful, but again this is a gadget which tends to stay in the drawer.

That wrapped up the themed part of the meeting. We spent the rest of time discussing the latest iteration of the Templot plan for the New Group Layout (a loco shed scene), which Jim had kindly circulated. The turntable has disappeared, and the bottom length of track will be physically separate so that DCC and non-DCC models can appear at the same time. The space at the bottom right is intended for a control panel. For simplicity, point will be mechanically operated. The shed itself will be a three-road type disappearing into the backscene at the left.

Amazingly, this time we actually agreed on it, and kept the momentum going by agreeing who would build what - since it's a learning exercise, each point will be built several times by different individuals, with the best being selected for use on the layout (or, if none are any good, sent back to their makers with a "please explain" note). A mix of Easitrack kit and copperclad-sleeper-with-Laurie-Adams-detailing-etches designs will be used. The aim is to complete these by the start of next summer, by which time, hopefully, the pandemic will have receded.

The next FCAG meeting will be on 12 December and may (or may not) be an "on my workbench" session. Better get these favourite implements out again then ...




Sunday, 13 September 2020

September 2020 FCAG meeting

We had a bumper attendance of 12 at this month's virtual meeting: Martin, Nigel, Alastair, Alisdair, Tony, Simon, Stephen, Graham, Jim, Richard, Andy and James. 

This month's theme was the project you'd love to build but (probably) never will. It prompted some interesting discussion. Andy took us through his past project of Leslie and future plans for Aberdour. Jim gave us a look at Airdrie's railways in maps, pictures and scale drawings: at one point he made serious plans to model the Caledonian terminus there but eventually concluded he'd be better doing something simpler ... so built Connerburn and now Kirkallanmuir instead.

Richard talked about the monumental coal staithes at Albert Edward Dock on the Tyne, and backed it up with some excellent photographs. Tony showed us his part-completed Hest Bank project, which he stores in sections until the day when he has a 13-metre-long shed, or converted farm steading maybe, available to house it. There were beguiling photos of 12-coach trains dwarfed by the baseboards in the sections completed so far. (Remember, this is the man with nine Black Five tenders!)  His comment was "Even if I spend my time not getting there, at least I'm content on the way", which perhaps summed up everyone's feelings about their pet projects. We spent quite a while discussing ways of lightening baseboards, and the timeless dilemma of whether to scrap and rebuild once lessons have been learned, or to soldier on and persevere with what's been achieved so far.

Alisdair gave a a civil engineer's perspective of the Findhorn viaduct on the Highland Railway's cutoff line from Aviemore to Inverness, backed up by a series of archive photographs, and discussed the possiblities of a roundy-roundy based on the viaduct and a simple passing-loop station on the lines of Moy or Tomatin. Graham gave a quick glimpse of three locations with potential: Clydebank Dock West Junction near Glasgow; Stannergate near Dundee: and St Ives in Cornwall.

Alastair showed us his current research into lightweight baseboards: foamboard skin separated by 3D-printed spacers along the trackbed, each with prongs to engage the foamboard and held by double-sided tape.Here's one of the blocks:


All very innovative. The difficulties of cutting foamboard neatly was raised by the audience. Alastair recommended the Logan Foamwerks series of tools, which do indeed look interesting.

We then turned to the familiar subject of our next group project ... some time was spent going over old ground but eventually we made some further progress. The tandem point, rejected in the most recent iteration of the track plan for being too hard to model due to a very short central crossing (the formation was two right-hand diverging, 1 in 5 turnouts), was resurrected in simpler form; we realised a raised coaling bench is unprototypically large for a  two- or three-road shed, which in turn meant we can simplify that part of the layout; and we discussed how we might push the project ahead even if a tighter lockdown lies ahead through the winter, as now seems inevitable, by dint of less-experienced members having a bash at making individual items (turnouts, buildings, etc) for the layout, and the more experienced members acting as mentors and applying strict quality control so that reliability is not compromised, a lesson learned from Sauchenford.

So, a briefer update than usual, but the meeting itself lasted for over three hours and was full of interest. The virtual format allows us to involve members who live too far from the central belt to attend physical meetings, and we hope we'll retain this even when (if!) we return to physical meetings in the future. Our next meeting will be virtual again, on October 10th, and will hopefully be a tutorial session. As a reminder, any 2mmSA member living in Scotland (or simply with an interest in what we're doing) is very welcome to attend - simply contact Alisdair Campbell to receive the regular invitation mails - his e-mail address and telephone number are in the newsletter in the "Area Group Contacts" section.

Sunday, 9 August 2020

July and August 2020 FCAG meetings

Two months for the price of one in this update!

Our July video meeting had the theme of wagons: Alisdair Campbell gave us a rundown on his collection, from BR prototypes to his Highland Railway fleet, from plastic kits, commercial etches, and his own etch designs, and some pure scratchbuilds. Some discussion of couplings ensued. I was not able to take any screenshots, but if Alisdair sends me his pictures I will add them here.

I had to leave the meeting at that point, but I am told there was some further discussion regarding the proposed group layout. Forfar shed is emerging as a theme. The prototype shed is still standing, in use as the headquarters of a firm of steel-framed agricultural building suppliers.

The shed building is a typical Caley design of the late 1890s but, at four roads by seven bays plus a separate fitters' shop, it is bigger than we want for our layout, which is intended as a display unit for use at exhibitions (remember them?) to convince the punters of the merits of 2FS over "N". As such, it needs to be legless (to sit on top of the exhibition table usually supplied for the 2mmSA Further North Road Show), lightweight, compact enough to go in the back of a car while still allowing four weedy FCAG members in the front (we think 3 feet long, 18 inches deep, 8 inches high when packed).
 
However, Arbroath shed, completed the year before Forfar, is very similar and had three roads by six bays. Thanks to the generosity of a friend we have its dimensions from an official drawing, so we can hopefully produce something visually convincing. In any case, it is only an inspiration for our scene, and we only aim to model one end of it. The whole thing is meant as a learning exercise, a short-life project to be disposed without ceremony once it has outlived its usefulness. The plan will be something like this Templot rendition:
The August meeting was again a Zoom affair, and consisted of a show-and-tell session. First up was a new recruit, Richard, who told us about his buildings based on Fenwick Pit in north-east England. They are made the old-fashioned way by drawing the shape onto brick-pattern-embossed styrene sheet and building up layers. The window glazing bars and much of the more delicate detail are from Evergreen microstrip. A full write-up is on RMWeb, but we were able to see the results all brought together, in front of a prototype picture on his computer screen:
Some discussion ensued on the best source of 2mm scale hopper wagon kits, with Fence Houses Model Foundry the most likely contender.

Next to go was Jim, who showed us his progress with the remarkable model he has made of the awnings for the Grampian group's Dunallander station. Again the full story is on RMWeb but it was good to hear the detailed tale directly. 
Jim has also been working on further buildings for his own Kirkallanmuir layout. He showed us one or two pictures with an explanation of how he'd created the roof textures. This is a rear view of a small stable, taken part-way through construction and before weathering. Not the most elegant photo but it was what I happened to grab during the description. I hope Jim will post full details on his RMWeb layout thread in due course.
 Andy talked us through his progress with a Fence Houses Jinty chassis, seen here during its live demonstration in motion.
Simon's subject was layout legs. Walking the rain-swept streets of the south side of Glasgow, he was struck by the number of home-assembly bed frames which turn up waiting for collection by the authorities, presumably as kids grow up and need a bigger bed or leave home. Many of these beds were of the type with wooden slats to support a mattress. It occurred to Simon that these slats were likely to be well seasoned after being indoors in a warm place for several years, unlike the wood typically available fresh from a builder's merchant or DIY warehouse. A few such slats therefore accompanied him home and were allowed to recover from the rain in his garage for a month or two.

Although the slats were preshaped to a gentle curve, he realised they could be used in pairs sliding past each other to create adjustable legs by using a wood router to cut accurate slots, and pairs of M8 bolts top and bottom to lock them at the desired height. The curved shape means there is plenty tension to ensure the legs don't slip once the bolts are tightened.
Once in place under the layout, a triangular plywood flap is opened out for lateral stability. The flap is hinged so the legs can pack down flat.
The design uses T-nuts attached to the woodwork as far as possible so that there are no wing nuts to lose. Everything is held together with M8 bolts.
Tony was next. Everyone's jaws dropped when he revealed how he'd spent a wet staycation in a caravan in glorious Scotland ... batch-building 2mmSA Black 5 kit tenders.

Not one tender. Or two or three or four or five ....

NINE tender bodies! All subtly different. Apparently the worst part is the fire-iron tunnel. Next he will tackle the functional powered chassis which runs behind the cosmetic frames.

As if this was not enough, he has also been working on Farish Jinty and 4F conversion chassis. No photos of these though.

Alisdair has been working to complete the model sewage works he promised for Tony's Hest Bank layout.
The Silhouette cutter has been used to good effect to create the roof slates on the store. The capping strips are from Plasticard.
The primary settlement tanks are of conic section. Alisdair cut them using the Silhouette from a mathematically-calculated projection which, to his slight surprise and greater satisfaction, came out right first time.
 
The concrete-paved roadway are achieved by painting concrete colour onto black card, then scoring through the surface to create the impression of large panels.
Railings are from copper bell wire made up using an aluminium jig. His ladder-soldering technique was covered in a previous blog entry.
 
We were also shown stock which has benefitted from the recently-introduced nine-spoke, 7mm wheels in the 2mmSA range. The difference is most noticeable when the vehicles in motion.
The rest of the session was spent on a quick discussion of the planned group layout. Nigel had circulated a sketch of a possible design for the basic support structure - a plywood-faced foamboard, or hollow-cell board "suitcase" with welded 1/16" aluminium framing. It turned out not everyone had received the mail in time however, and Nigel himself was busy out cycling in the sunshine (second sunny day in Scotland this year!), so we deferred full consideration for another time. The folding-hoop supports for lighting, a fascia, and a cloth sky sheet are a nice touch. The idea is that it will fit transversely into the boot of a small car and offer full protection to the model. The base will be solid with wiring feeds to the track brought out to the rear for linking. Point control may well be mechanical for simplicity, since everything is on a single board, but if necessary Arduino-driven servos may be used. Design of the turntable mechanism, whether mechanical or power-driven, is still under consideration.
It remains to be seen whether a physical meeting will be attempted in September, but the balance of opinion was that it is still too early. Time will tell.